| CURATED for Agents | Pending Sales Sink Near a 12-Year Low, the MBA Sees Rates Above 7% Through 2027 & a Shareholder Sues Compass |
MONDAY · OCTOBER 12, 2026 CURATED went across the industry for you. Here’s the news worth knowing, the context worth understanding, and the reactions worth hearing. |
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| 👋 Agents. Pending home sales are near a 12-year low.
Redfin says pending sales fell 4 percent in September, and 14.5 percent of the month’s contracts were canceled. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s chief economist sees rates above 7 percent through 2027. An Anywhere stockholder sued Compass over how the merger got approved. The mortgage group’s CEO says he is increasingly confident the three-bureau credit report will not be around for long. And a Nashville team found 79 of its dormant domains being used to pose as the team. Let’s get into all of it.
Enjoy, — CURATED. |
| 1st TakePending Home Sales Sank Near a 12-Year Low in SeptemberThe Quick TakeRedfin reports that pending home sales fell 4 percent from August to September on a seasonally adjusted basis, the biggest monthly drop in more than three years. That left them at their lowest level since spring 2014, with the exception of April 2020. Pending sales fell from a year earlier in all 50 of the most populous metros, led by Seattle at 24.4 percent. Read more →Why It’s HittingMore deals are also falling apart. In September, 14.5 percent of deals that went under contract were canceled, the highest share on record outside March and April 2020. The number of homes for sale rose to its highest level since March 2020. | 📊 The Takes
Pricing a little under the comps leads, while buyer agents press their new leverage and others treat every pending deal as fragile with cancellations near a record.
🏷 Prices Under the Comps — ‘If it is not priced a little under the comps and prepped, it is going to sit.’
🤝 Works the Buyer Side — ‘Less competition means my buyers finally have room to ask for things.’
🛡 Guards Every Contract — ‘Cancellations are near a record. I treat every pending deal as fragile until it actually closes.’ |
| 2nd TakeThe Mortgage Bankers Association Sees Rates Above 7% Through 2027The Quick TakeMortgage Bankers Association chief economist Mike Fratantoni forecast Sunday that the 30-year rate will average 7.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2026 and remain above 7 percent through 2027. He spoke at the group’s annual conference in Chicago. He expects two more quarter-point Fed hikes, one in December and another in the first quarter of 2027. Read more →Why You’ll Feel ItThe group forecasts 5.0 million mortgage loans in 2027, down 5.6 percent from 2026. Deputy chief economist Joel Kan said the adjustable-rate share of applications averaged almost 10 percent over the past month. Fratantoni puts the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at around 35 percent. | 📊 The Takes
Retiring the refinance pitch tops the list, ahead of agents telling renters to buy anyway and a smaller group showing buyers ARMs while fixed rates stay above 7 percent.
🚫 Drops the Refi Pitch — ‘I am done telling buyers they can refinance next year. Nobody can promise that.’
🏠 Still Says Buy — ‘If 7 percent is here through 2027, waiting is just another year of rent.’
🔁 Shows Buyers the ARM — ‘ARMs are almost 10 percent of applications. I make sure my buyers at least hear about that option.’ |
| 3rd TakeAn Anywhere Shareholder Is Suing Compass Over the Merger’s ApprovalThe Quick TakeAn Anywhere stockholder sued Compass and multiple top executives late last week in federal court in New York City, RISMedia reports. The lawsuit seeks class-action status. It claims Compass misrepresented material facts, based on its reported use of a high-profile lobbyist to get around antitrust scrutiny of the deal. A Compass spokesperson told RISMedia the allegations are without merit and that the company will defend against the claims. Read more →The Real StoryThe suit names Compass International Holdings CEO Robert Reffkin and former Anywhere CEO Ryan Schneider. It claims a drop in Compass’s valuation caused substantial losses for Anywhere stockholders. The plaintiff wants a jury trial and unspecified damages. These are one stockholder’s allegations in a newly filed case. | 📊 The Takes
Plenty of agents shrug this off as an investor matter, others keep count of Compass cases, and agents at Anywhere brands want their own leadership to explain it.
🤷 Not My Lawsuit — ‘This is between investors and lawyers. It does not change how I list a house.’
👀 Keeps a Tally — ‘One more case with Compass in the caption. I am keeping count.’
🙋 Wants Answers From Leadership — ‘My office sits under the Compass roof now. I want leadership telling us what this suit means.’ |
| 4th TakeThe Three-Bureau Credit Report Will Not Be Around for Long, the MBA’s Chief SaysThe Quick TakeMortgage Bankers Association president and CEO Bob Broeksmit said Monday he is increasingly confident the tri-merge credit report will not be around for long. He said the specific reform is still being worked out. Most agency loans require a report that pulls data and scores from all three major bureaus. Federal Housing Finance Agency director Bill Pulte canceled his in-person appearance at the group’s Chicago convention, where many expected him to announce a two-bureau option. Read more →What’s ChangingPulte has said a two-bureau option is under consideration and that his agency is studying a single-pull option. A change could reduce borrower fees. Dan Smith, president and CEO of the Consumer Data Industry Association, says more data produces better outcomes and keeps borrowing costs down. | 📊 The Takes
Cutting a closing fee wins more support than keeping the full credit file, and a third camp will wait until a lender actually changes the rule.
💵 Takes the Savings — ‘Every fee we can pull out of a closing helps. Drop the third report.’
🔍 Wants the Full File — ‘I would rather the lender see everything up front than get surprised in underwriting.’
⏳ Waits for Real Change — ‘Pulte skipped the convention, and the reform is still being worked out. I will tell buyers when lenders switch.’ |
| 5th TakeHow a Threatened Compass Lawsuit Against an MLS Could Play OutThe Quick TakeThe Real Deal examined how Compass’s threatened lawsuits against MLSs could play out. Harrison McAvoy, a partner at Mandelbaum Barrett, said MLS rules draw more than baseline scrutiny because most are arrived at collectively by competitors. He said Compass would still need to show the rules affect the market, and he sees a good case that they affect consumer choice. Attorney Marx Sterbcow expects MLSs to say that off-MLS marketing means less transparency for buyers. Read more →What’s at StakeCompass’s September 8 letter demanded MLSs stop fining agents for publicly marketing listings kept off their systems. CRMLS has already filed its own suit. Its general counsel, Ed Zorn, wrote that he has spoken with agents whose buyers were forced to abandon their representation to tour hidden Compass listings. | 📊 The Takes
Agents lean toward the MLS, a sizable group backs the seller’s right to market privately, and the rest will follow current rules until a court says otherwise.
🏛 Sides With the MLS — ‘If my buyer needs a Compass agent to see everything for sale, that is not choice.’
🔑 Sides With the Seller — ‘My seller hired me, not the MLS. We decide how the home gets marketed.’
📏 Follows the Rules Today — ‘Until a judge rules, the fines are real. I market by the rules on the books.’ |
| 6th TakeRates Dipped Last Week, and This Wednesday’s Inflation Report Is the Next TestThe Quick TakeRates fell slightly last week as Fed speakers repeated that more hikes are coming but not necessarily right away, writes Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research. Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting showed the vote to hike was unanimous but the reasoning was not. Zhao calls another hike in October unlikely unless the next CPI print shatters expectations. She says a December hike is still on the table. Read more →The StakesThe consumer price report comes out this Wednesday, and producer prices follow Thursday. Zhao writes that together they would need to imply core PCE inflation above 0.3 percent month over month to make a hike at the October 28 meeting viable again. | 📊 The Takes
Locking before Wednesday’s inflation report edges out floating through it, while some agents hand the timing call to the loan officer.
🔒 Locks Before the Report — ‘I do not let a buyer float into an inflation report. Lock it.’
🌊 Floats Through It — ‘Rates just dipped, and an October hike looks unlikely. I would give it one more report.’
🏦 Defers to the Loan Officer — ‘Lock timing is the loan officer’s call. My job is getting my buyer on the phone with them before Wednesday.’ |
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